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dự đoán xsmb wap:Oil remains on upward pressure

admin2023-01-045Nhóm Chơi Tài Xỉu

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PETALING JAYA: Oil and gas (O&G) analysts and economists are projecting oil prices to remain firm at between US$83 (RM367) and US$127 (RM561) next year, fuelled by rising demand from China, upsurge in air travel worldwide and the prolong Russia-Ukraine war.

On the supply side, they expect global tightness in the oil market to continue and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (Opec+), among others, to maintain oil price at elevated levels.

Malaysia, as a net exporter of the commodity, would stand in good stead as it would not only improve the country’s fiscal position and the government’s balance sheet but also spur O&G activities, they opined.

Maybank Investment Bank regional co-head, oil and gas research Liaw Thong Jung told StarBiz that he expects the oil market to remain strong in 2023, adding that he is looking at US$100 (RM442) per barrel for international benchmark Brent crude, similar to 2022.

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As at press time, the international benchmark Brent crude was up 4.15% to US$84.34 (RM373 per barrel).

“The rising demand for crude, especially from China reopening its economy, and the increase in air travel worldwide would lead to higher oil prices,” he said.

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He added that on the supply side, there appears to be no new sizeable production coming into place, with existing fields facing natural depletion due to the structural underinvestment in the past.

“The role of Opec+ as a swing producer’s priority will be to keep oil prices high, at the expense of higher production. They will be able to manage output expectations.

“Also, shale is not making a comeback in a big way akin to the 2008-2020 days. Their priority is to reward shareholders and to generate cash flows over increasing production.

“Financing on O&G is also a bigger challenge now versus the previous cycle,” Liaw said.

The Opec+ group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has decided to leave its production quotas unchanged.

The group would stick to the earlier agreed October 2022 plan to cut output by two million barrels per day (bpd), which amounted to an effective production cut of one million bpd (with Russia and Saudi Arabia sharing the output cut equally) from November 2022 until end-2023.

The group’s next meeting is scheduled in February 2023, with the one after on June 4, 2023.

Juwai IQI global chief economist Shan SaeedJuwai IQI global chief economist Shan Saeed said as the global economy remains in a fragile state amid recession in many advanced economies, coupled with stagflation in vogue in many first world economies with monetary lever getting stretched, commodities are back on the investors radar, especially oil and natural gas market.

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